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The Mysterious Climate Project - Part VII
Natural Vs Anthropogenic Sources Of Greenhouse Gases
Review
In the preceding section, we used figures from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to create two easy to understand tables. The first table presented the IPCC’s prior and post Industrial Revolution greenhouse gas figures while the second modified the first table to include each gas’s Global Warming Potential.
Preview...
Is this section of “The Mysterious Climate Project,” we'll continue exploring the IPCC’s greenhouse gas figures by segregating the gases into point of origin: natural and Anthropogenic. Finally, using figures from the IPCC and others, we'll calculate some percentages to arrive at mankind’s actual contribution to our greenhouse gas inventory, excluding water vapor.
The Numbers Game...
The following table shows Planet Earth’s inventory of greenhouse gases as they existed up until the Industrial Revolution alongside additions to that inventory since the Industrial Revolution. Each gas’s total inventory is then adjusted for its Global Warming Potential (GWP) and ranked in comparison to the grand total.
Planet Earth’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory (Excluding Water Vapor),
Showing Its Pre-Industrial Base With Additions Separated
By Natural And Anthropogenic Origins.
|
Gas
|
(A)
Pre-Industrial Baseline
|
Additions
|
(D)
Line Item Total
(A+B+C)
|
Percent
To Total GHG
(Does Not Include Water)
(D/E)
|
|
Natural
|
Anthropogenic
|
|
(B)
Volume
|
Percent To Line Item Total
(B/D)
|
(C)
Volume
|
Percent To Line Item Total
(C/D)
|
|
Carbon Dioxide
|
288,000
|
68,520
|
18.6%
|
11,880
|
3.2%
|
368,400
|
99.438
|
|
Methane
|
848
|
577
|
33.1%
|
320
|
18.3%
|
1,745
|
0.471
|
|
Nitrous Oxide
|
285
|
12
|
3.8%
|
15
|
4.8%
|
312
|
0.084
|
|
Misc Gases
|
25
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
7.4%
|
27
|
0.007
|
|
Totals
|
|
|
|
(E)
370,484
|
100.0%
|
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According to the above table, Anthropogenic (man-made) carbon dioxide makes up just 3.2% of all carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution began.
But that’s not all there is to greenhouse gas. Each greenhouse gas has a different characteristic referred to as the “Global Warming Potential” or GWP. These characteristics include each gases lifespan as well as its unique heat absorption factor. Carbon dioxide was arbitrarily set to “1,” and for good reason: if any other gas had been selected as the standard, carbon dioxide’s impact would look even more miniscule than it already does in the overall scheme of things. So now, let’s apply the GWP to the gases in our table.
Greenhouse Gases With GWP Added
(The upper figures are the unadjusted GHG volume numbers
and the lower are the GHG volume multiplied by the GWP factor)
|
Gas
|
Sym
|
GWP
|
(A)
Pre-Industrial Baseline
|
Additions
|
(D)
Line Item Total
(A+B+C)
|
Percent of Total
(Does Not Include Water)
(D/E)
|
|
Natural
|
Anthropogenic
|
|
(B)
Volume
|
Percent To Line Item Total
(B/D)
|
(C)
Volume
|
Percent To Line Item Total
(C/D)
|
|
Carbon Dioxide
|
CO2
|
1
|
288,000/
288,000
|
68,520/
68,520
|
23.8/
23.8
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11,880/
11,880
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3.2/
3.2
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368,400/
368,400
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99.44/
72.40
|
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Methane
|
CH4
|
21
|
848/
17,808
|
577/
12,117
|
33.1/
33.1
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320/
6,720
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18.3/
18.3
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1,745/
36,645
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0.47/
7.20
|
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Nitrous Oxide
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N2O
|
310
|
285/
88,350
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12/
3,720
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3.8/
3.8
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15/
4,650
|
4.8/
4.8
|
312/
96,720
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0.08/
19.00
|
|
Misc Gases
|
-
|
|
25/
2,500
|
0/
0
|
(1)
|
2/
4,791
|
7.4/
65.7
|
27/
7,291
|
0.01/
1.43
|
|
Total
|
-
|
|
289,158/
396,658
|
69,109/
84,357
|
(2)
|
12,217/
28,041
|
N/A
|
(E)
370,484/
509,056
|
100.0/
100.03 |
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- Notes:
1. These figures are a composite of many gasses and have been pre-calculated. Most, if not all of this group is believed to have been nonexistent prior to the Industrial Revolution and have been calculated from anecdotal evidence. Additionally, the GWP is also a composite and the total of this special group is presented for brevity. Obviously, this is not the last word!
2. This row of percentages do not cross foot due to the calculated values in Miscellaneous Gases
Suddenly, man’s contribution to the greenhouse effect begins heading downhill! But that’s only the tip of the iceberg! In the next section, “Fun With Numbers - Part II,” we’ll add the 800 pound gorilla: water vapor
Summary…
In this section of “The Mysterious Climate Project,” we began getting into the “meat and potatoes” by examining an array of confusing numbers in easy to read and understand tables. After dissecting greenhouse gas additions into those considered natural and those considered anthropogenic, an entirely new perspective unfolds with man’s contribution to the overall Greenhouse Effect falling to only 3.2%!
Coming up…
In the next section of “The Mysterious Climate Project,” we’ll continue exploring our greenhouse gases and the greenhouse effect by introducing the most important factor of all, water vapor.
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