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The Mysterious Climate Project - Part VII
Natural Vs Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases
Review In the preceding section, we used figures from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to create two easy to understand tables. The first table presented the IPCC’s prior and post Industrial Revolution greenhouse gas figures while the second modified the first table to include each gas’s Global Warming Potential.
Preview... Is this section of “The Mysterious Climate Project,” we'll continue exploring the IPCC’s greenhouse gas figures by segregating the gases into point of origin: natural and Anthropogenic. Finally, using figures from the IPCC and others, we'll calculate some percentages to arrive at mankind’s actual contribution to our greenhouse gas inventory, excluding water vapor.
The Numbers Game... The following table, “Table One” (actually “Table Two” taken from the previous section of “The Mysterious Climate Project), shows Planet Earth’s inventory of greenhouse gases as they existed up until the Industrial Revolution alongside additions to that inventory since the Industrial Revolution. Each gas’s total inventory is then adjusted for its Global Warming Potential (GWP) and ranked in comparison to the grand total.
Table One (Reproduced From The Last Report) Planet Earth’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory (Excluding Water Vapor) Adjusted For Each Gases’ Global Warming Potential (GWP)
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(1) Gas
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(2)
Pre Industrial Baseline In PPBV
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(3)
Post Industrial Additions In PPBV
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(4)
Total In PPBV
(2)+(3)
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(5)
GWP
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(6)
Total Adjusted For GWP In PPBV (4) X (5)
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(7)
Percent Of Total After Adjustment For GWP
(6)/509,056
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Carbon Dioxide
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288,000
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80,400
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368,400
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1
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368,400
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72.369%
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Methane
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848
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897
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1,745
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21
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36,645
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7.199%
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Nitrous Oxide
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285
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27
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312
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310
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96,720
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19.000%
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Misc Gases
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25
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2
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27
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7,291
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1.432%
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Total
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509,056
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100.0%
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Nature Vs Man Calculations... The above table (“Table Two” from the last edition of “The Mysterious Climate Project”), is interesting… in fact a bit scary considering some of the numbers. But it’s only a foundation upon which we'll now build.
According to many sources (including the IPCC itself), not all greenhouse gases are Anthropogenic in origin. In fact natural additions to the proclaimed “base” tend to dwarf Anthropogenic contributions!
So let’s construct our next table, this one showing weighted greenhouse gases with additions to the “base” segregated by natural and Anthropogenic sources.
Table Two
Planet Earth’s Greenhouse Gases Adjusted For GWP (Excluding Water Vapor) With Additions To The “Base” Separated By Natural And Anthropogenic (Man-Made) Sources
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Gas
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(A)
Pre Industrial Baseline In PPBV (GWP Weighted)
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Additions
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(D)
Line Item Total In PPBV (GWP Weighted) (A+B+C)
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Percent of Total GHG (No Water Vapor)
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Natural
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Man
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(B) Amount In PPBV (GWP Weighted)
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Percent To Line Item Total (B)/(D)
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(C)
Amount In PPBV (GWP Weighted)
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Percent To Line Item Total (C)/(D)
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Carbon Dioxide
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288,000
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68,520
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18.6%
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11,880
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3.2%
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368,400
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72.4%
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Methane
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17,808
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12,117
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33.1%
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6,720
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18.3%
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36,645
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7.2%
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Nitrous Oxide
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88,350
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3,720
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3.8%
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4,650
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4.8%
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96,720
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19.0%
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Misc Gases
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7,291
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1.4%
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Total
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509,056
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100.0%
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According to the above table, anthropogenic (man-made) carbon dioxide makes up just 3.2% of all carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, or depending on your point of view, only 2.3% (11,880/509,056) of the total greenhouse effect! But would that be enough to create a “tipping point?”
Maybe “yes,” maybe “no.” But it’s something not to be concerned with at this point because there’s still more to be added to the equation and you probably guessed it: where is the most important greenhouse gas of all, water vapor?
Summary… In this section of “The Mysterious Climate Project,” we began getting into the “meat and potatoes” by examining an array of confusing numbers in easy to read and understand tables. After dissecting greenhouse gas additions into those considered natural and those considered anthropogenic, an entirely new perspective unfolds with man’s contribution to the overall Greenhouse Effect falling to only 2.3%!
Coming up… In the next section of “The Mysterious Climate Project,” we’ll continue exploring our greenhouse gases and the greenhouse effect by introducing the most important factor of all, water vapor.
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