Jack Koenig
Mysterious Climate


The Mysterious Climate Project - Part VII

Natural Vs Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases

Review
In the preceding section, we used figures from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to create two easy to understand tables. The first table presented the IPCC’s prior and post Industrial Revolution greenhouse gas figures while the second modified the first table to include each gas’s Global Warming Potential.

Preview...
Is this section of “The Mysterious Climate Project,” we'll continue exploring the IPCC’s greenhouse gas figures by segregating the gases into point of origin: natural and Anthropogenic. Finally, using figures from the IPCC and others, we'll calculate some percentages to arrive at mankind’s actual contribution to our greenhouse gas inventory, excluding water vapor.

The Numbers Game...
The following table, “Table One” (actually “Table Two” taken from the previous section of “The Mysterious Climate Project), shows Planet Earth’s inventory of greenhouse gases as they existed up until the Industrial Revolution alongside additions to that inventory since the Industrial Revolution. Each gas’s total inventory is then adjusted for its Global Warming Potential (GWP) and ranked in comparison to the grand total.

Table One (Reproduced From The Last Report)
Planet Earth’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory
(Excluding Water Vapor)
Adjusted For Each Gases’ Global Warming Potential (GWP)

(1)
Gas

(2)

Pre
Industrial Baseline
In PPBV

(3)

Post
Industrial Additions
In PPBV

(4)

Total In PPBV

(2)+(3)

(5)

GWP

(6)

Total
Adjusted
For GWP
 In PPBV
(4) X (5)

(7)

Percent
Of Total After Adjustment
For GWP

(6)/509,056

Carbon Dioxide

288,000

80,400

368,400

1

368,400

72.369%

Methane

848

897

1,745

21

36,645

7.199%

Nitrous Oxide

285

27

312

310

96,720

19.000%

Misc Gases

25

2

27

 

7,291

1.432%

Total

509,056

100.0%



Nature Vs Man Calculations...
The above table (“Table Two” from the last edition of “The Mysterious Climate Project”), is interesting… in fact a bit scary considering some of the numbers. But it’s only a foundation upon which we'll now build.

According to many sources (including the IPCC itself), not all greenhouse gases are Anthropogenic in origin. In fact natural additions to the proclaimed “base” tend to dwarf Anthropogenic contributions!

So let’s construct our next table, this one showing weighted greenhouse gases with additions to the “base” segregated by natural and Anthropogenic sources.
 

Table Two

Planet Earth’s Greenhouse Gases Adjusted For GWP
(Excluding Water Vapor)
With Additions To The “Base” Separated By Natural
And Anthropogenic (Man-Made) Sources

 

Gas

(A)

Pre Industrial Baseline
In PPBV
(GWP Weighted)

Additions

(D)

Line Item
Total
In PPBV
(GWP Weighted)
(A+B+C)


Percent of Total GHG (No Water Vapor)

Natural

Man


(B)
Amount
In PPBV
(GWP Weighted)


Percent
To Line
Item Total
(B)/(D)

(C)

Amount
 In PPBV
(GWP Weighted)


Percent
 To Line
 Item Total
(C)/(D)

Carbon Dioxide

288,000

68,520

18.6%

11,880

3.2%

368,400

72.4%

Methane

17,808

12,117

33.1%

6,720

18.3%

36,645

7.2%

Nitrous Oxide

88,350

3,720

3.8%

4,650

4.8%

96,720

19.0%

Misc Gases

 

7,291

1.4%

Total

509,056

100.0%

According to the above table, anthropogenic (man-made) carbon dioxide makes up just 3.2% of all carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, or depending on your point of view, only 2.3% (11,880/509,056) of the total greenhouse effect! But would that be enough to create a “tipping point?”

Maybe “yes,” maybe “no.” But it’s something not to be concerned with at this point because there’s still more to be added to the equation and you probably guessed it: where is the most important greenhouse gas of all, water vapor?

Summary
In this section of “The Mysterious Climate Project,” we began getting into the “meat and potatoes” by examining an array of confusing numbers in easy to read and understand tables. After dissecting greenhouse gas additions into those considered natural and those considered anthropogenic, an entirely new perspective unfolds with man’s contribution to the overall Greenhouse Effect falling to only 2.3%!

Coming up
In the next section of “The Mysterious Climate Project,” we’ll continue exploring our greenhouse gases and the greenhouse effect by introducing the most important factor of all, water vapor.

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