The Mysterious Climate Project - Part VI

Pre And Post Industrial Greenhouse Gases

Review

In the preceding section, we discussed how the term “greenhouse gas” began and grew; how the sun’s heat enters earth as visible light and escapes as infrared radiation; how the greenhouse effect slows down the transfer of earth’s heat to outer space, and how it provides earth with its “goldilocks” atmosphere. We also used an analogy to gain a better understanding on how the greenhouse effect protects Planet Earth from extremes and offered a simplistic model demonstrating how a carbon dioxide molecule transfers heat between molecules, space, and earth.

Preview

Is this section of “The Mysterious Climate Project,” we’ll review our inventory of greenhouse gases in tabular form showing the amounts believed to be existing prior to the Industrial Revolution, those believed added since the Industrial Revolution, and the percent of each as computed against the total. We will then apply an equalization factor called the “Global Warming Potential” (GWP), to show each gas’s actual impact on the overall greenhouse effect.

The Numbers Game

According to most in the media, Planet Earth is going to “Hell in a hand basket” because of mankind’s contribution to the greenhouse effect. Some of the highly publicized figures regarding man’s contribution to the carbon dioxide component of our greenhouse gas inventory include:
 

• · USAToday: up 26.2% from 1900 to1998
• · National Safety Council: up 31.1%
• · Reuters: 44% increase since the Industrial Revolution
• · Manchester University (UK): up 32% since the Industrial Revolution
• · Woods Hole: about a 30% increase since the Industrial Revolution
• · NOAA: up 32.1% since the Industrial Revolution
• · University of Maryland: 25+% increase since the Industrial Revolution
• · US PIRG (Public Interest Research Group): increases of over 35% since 1750

And of course, we can’t forget the United Nation’s take on all this: carbon dioxide is responsible for over 60% of the enhanced greenhouse effect.

Obviously, you don’t have to be a mathematician to see the numbers are all over the board. In addition, time frames and terminology change between groups, raising the question: Does anyone really know what they’re talking about? For example, the UN’s figure of 60% is based on a category called the “Enhanced Greenhouse Effect,” a special category quite different from any other.

Regardless of the time frames or terminology, one has to admit all of the above figures are more than just “concerning,” especially if they might bring about any of the predicted dire consequences. However, considering all the previous distortions made by these groups, can we trust them this time? Let’s face it, if they’re right and we ignore them, we could be in a serious bind!

But let’s not belabor the point and instead start digging into the greenhouse gas figures, as presented by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and present them in an easy to understand table.

The following table, “Table One,” presents an estimated inventory of Planet Earth’s greenhouse gases as they existed up until the Industrial Revolution, alongside estimated additions to that inventory since the Industrial Revolution. Each gas’s inventory is then ranked in comparison to the grand total.

Table One

Planet Earth’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Expressed
In Parts Per Billion On A Volume Basis (PPBV)
(Excluding Water Vapor)
Separated By Estimated Pre-Industrial Base Figures
And Estimated Additions To That Base

Okay, the above actually does look a bit scary, doesn’t it! Well, get ready because we’re going to make it even more depressing!

So let’s begin expanding on “Table One” by using the GWP (Global Warming Potential) to level the playing field. To present this in a table similar to its predecessor, we’ll simply copy columns 1-4 from “Table One” and add two new columns to accommodate our adjustments. Finally, we’ll add one more column showing each greenhouse gas’s revised impact on the greenhouse effect.

Table Two
Planet Earth’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory Expressed
In Parts Per Billion On A Volume Basis (PPBV)
(Excluding Water Vapor)
Adjusted For Each Gases’ Global Warming Potential (GWP)

(1) Gas (2) Pre Industrial Baseline In PPBV (3) Post Industrial Additions in PPBV (4) Total In PPBV (2)+(3) (5) GWP (6) Total Adjusted For GWP In PPBV (4) X (5) (7) Percent Of Total After Adjustment For GWP (6)/509,056 Carbon Dioxide 288,000 80,400 368,400 1 368,400 72.369% Methane 848 897 1,745 21 36,645 7.199% Nitrous Oxide 285 27 312 310 96,720 19.000% Misc Gases 25 2 27   7,291 1.432% Total 509,056 100.0%

As the table suggests, carbon dioxide has had its wings clipped a bit. Although it is still ranked on a volume basis as 99.438% of all greenhouse gases (excluding water vapor), its impact on the total greenhouse effect has been reduced to a “mere” 72.369% vis-à-vis others in the table.

On the other hand, when you compare the “Total” greenhouse gases shown at the bottom of column 4 in “Table One” with its cousin, the last item in column 6 of “Table Two,” you’ll find that the total adjusted impact on the greenhouse effect (excluding water vapor) has increased by 37.4% (509,056 – 370,484)/370,484)! Looks like trouble in River City!

Summary…

In this section of “The Mysterious Climate Project,” we began getting into the “meat and potatoes” by placing the United Nation’s IPCC greenhouse gas figures in easy to understand tables for examination. We then adjusted those figures, as prescribed by the IPCC, to show the actual impacts each greenhouse gas has on the overall effect. The bottom line is that after adjustments, the total greenhouse gas impact, excluding water vapor, has increased by a whooping 37.4%.

Coming up…

In the next section of “The Mysterious Climate Project,” we’ll expand our understanding of our greenhouse gases and the greenhouse effect by separating that special “Enhanced Greenhouse Gas” category (post Industrial Revolution additions) by point of origin: natural or anthropogenic.

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